Interesting thought provoking post. NESO 2030 plan is plausible as a solution but entirely undeliverable and the only way to get anywhere to close to it means importing even more high value equipment as the UK makes pretty limited amount of kit now. We can make blades at scale but thats about it the rest of it comes from largely Denmark, Germany and China so its them that will get the green jobs not the UK. Its utterly disingenuous of Millibrain to say there will a UK green jobs bonanza there wont be and its about time the unions called him out for that. It gets worse as deindustrialisation has largely been responsible for the UKs reduced CO2 and we haven't helped the global challenge one bit and probably worsened it actually by buying from countries with higher fossil fuel usage let alone lower environmental standards.
Personally i see a push/pull going on in NESO between the engineers that know what it takes to keep the lights on vs the NZ evangelists with engineers winning round one and at least getting acknowledgement that gas will be needed for the foreseeable future in a standby capacity. Im not anti NZ but i don't see the urgency of 2030 given the rest of the globe already dwarfs the CO2 we emit so for me a slower plan that keeps costs down and allows UK manufacturing to be restored should be the way forward.
All of this proposed new ‘ capacity’ requires imported stuff. Especially diesel fuel oil with which to move it , build it and operate it. Along with constant spare parts. Copper is very useful when building interconnecters for disparate , energy scavenging sources. The U.K. has no control over international commodities pricing and has virtually no raw materials itself (except for those 80 million highly trained engineers). What pray tell, will you (U.K.) swop for this imported , generally manufactured & finished stuff? Barbering and nail bar talent? Other such services? Analysists? This at a time when the international export of hydrocarbon fuel oils is looking very shaky indeed, with the failure of our warmongering gambit to nail those Eurasian fuel sources for cheap. Net zero indeed.
Renewables grid penetration will never exceed around 45% because without unaffordable, unsourceable storage, it will always need coal, gas and nuclear to back it up for those windless, sunless periods - global stilling is increasing reducing further wind farm CF’s in future years and solar above the 45th parallel, is next to useless for grid scale
Like you I was frustrated that the NESO 2030 didn't explicit state the required duration of the storage associated within their scenarios, however I decided that it must be published somewhere within their microsite so decided to painstakingly search for it.
If you look at the 'Clean Power 2030 Data workbook' (link below) which accompanies the publication, you can extract from the table the required durations of the Electricity storage in tab <ES1: Electricity Supply> of the workbook.
If I have interpreted the table correctly, for both the 'Further Flex' and 'Renewables' scenarios, the implied durations are:
Long Duration Energy Storage around 13hrs Duration in 2030 (7.9 GW)
I avoided diving into that "Clean Power 2030 Data Workbook_V001.xlsx" file for the very reason you hint at: "If I have interpreted the table correctly..."
I admire the complexity of what's done within the workbook.
I also abhor the complexity... I hesitate to guess how on earth they error-check/debug it.
I have the luxury of KISS: keep it simple, stoopid.
Nuclear is only mentioned once. The near future is Small Modular Nuclear Reactors. No need for long transmission lines that are needed for Wind and solar. The longer the transmission lines, the more the energy loss. Total life cycle costs including construction and disposal per MWh should be included
I wish I had your confidence that SMRs will get anywhere soon.
All the while the funds we don't have are dedicated to subsidising windmills and solar panels directed by Energy Minister Ed Milliband of the DNZ, I fear little will be left over for SMRs.
And HMGov seem intent on increasing bureaucracy around the whole issue.
The linked BBC piece on the PM's announcements on AI include another announcement of another quango (the new AI Energy Council)... which will possibly contradict advice from the CCC...?
The most terrifying words imaginable: "We're here from the Government and we want to help you."
Also with long transmission lines don't forget the risk of extreme weather taking out the transmission lines. During the winter of 1963 Southern England became Islanded so could not import in coal fired capacity from the Midlands and North (coal by wire being the post war electricity strategy) so had to resort to rota disconnection which is why a number of oil fired power station were built in Southern England and I suspect (although this was due to what happen during the winter of 1947 with transporting coal) the reason most of the Magnox power stations were in the Southern half of England.
Then we must not forget the example of the North American Ice Storm of 1998 where freezing rain brought down Hydro Québec's high voltage transmission system which had to be rebuild as it damaged pass the point of repair. In Québec's most of the space heating is provide by electricity most of which is from distant hydro electric dams.
Jim, thanks for your comments. I wish I had your confidence that SMRs will get anywhere soon. All the while the funds we don't have are dedicated to subsidising windmills and solar panels directed by Energy Minister Ed Milliband of the DNZ, I fear little will be left over for SMRs. And HMGov seem intent on increasing bureaucracy around the whole issue. The linked BBC piece on the PM's announcements on AI include another announcement of another quango (the new AI Energy Council)... which will possibly contradict advice from the CCC...? The most terrifying words imaginable: "We're here from the Government and we want to help you." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c04nl711r0qo
Chris Bond replied to your comment on Great Britain Reality.
Jim, thanks for your comments. I wish I had your confidence that SMRs will get anywhere soon. All the while the funds we don't have are dedicated to subsidising windmills and solar panels directed by Energy Minister Ed Milliband of the DNZ, I fear little will be left over for SMRs. And HMGov seem intent on increasing bureaucracy around the whole issue. The linked BBC piece on the PM's announcements on AI include another announcement of another quango (the new AI Energy Council)... which will possibly contradict advice from the CCC...? The most terrifying words imaginable: "We're here from the Government and we want to help you." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c04nl711r0qo
Interesting thought provoking post. NESO 2030 plan is plausible as a solution but entirely undeliverable and the only way to get anywhere to close to it means importing even more high value equipment as the UK makes pretty limited amount of kit now. We can make blades at scale but thats about it the rest of it comes from largely Denmark, Germany and China so its them that will get the green jobs not the UK. Its utterly disingenuous of Millibrain to say there will a UK green jobs bonanza there wont be and its about time the unions called him out for that. It gets worse as deindustrialisation has largely been responsible for the UKs reduced CO2 and we haven't helped the global challenge one bit and probably worsened it actually by buying from countries with higher fossil fuel usage let alone lower environmental standards.
Personally i see a push/pull going on in NESO between the engineers that know what it takes to keep the lights on vs the NZ evangelists with engineers winning round one and at least getting acknowledgement that gas will be needed for the foreseeable future in a standby capacity. Im not anti NZ but i don't see the urgency of 2030 given the rest of the globe already dwarfs the CO2 we emit so for me a slower plan that keeps costs down and allows UK manufacturing to be restored should be the way forward.
All of this proposed new ‘ capacity’ requires imported stuff. Especially diesel fuel oil with which to move it , build it and operate it. Along with constant spare parts. Copper is very useful when building interconnecters for disparate , energy scavenging sources. The U.K. has no control over international commodities pricing and has virtually no raw materials itself (except for those 80 million highly trained engineers). What pray tell, will you (U.K.) swop for this imported , generally manufactured & finished stuff? Barbering and nail bar talent? Other such services? Analysists? This at a time when the international export of hydrocarbon fuel oils is looking very shaky indeed, with the failure of our warmongering gambit to nail those Eurasian fuel sources for cheap. Net zero indeed.
Renewables grid penetration will never exceed around 45% because without unaffordable, unsourceable storage, it will always need coal, gas and nuclear to back it up for those windless, sunless periods - global stilling is increasing reducing further wind farm CF’s in future years and solar above the 45th parallel, is next to useless for grid scale
A commendable effort!
Like you I was frustrated that the NESO 2030 didn't explicit state the required duration of the storage associated within their scenarios, however I decided that it must be published somewhere within their microsite so decided to painstakingly search for it.
If you look at the 'Clean Power 2030 Data workbook' (link below) which accompanies the publication, you can extract from the table the required durations of the Electricity storage in tab <ES1: Electricity Supply> of the workbook.
If I have interpreted the table correctly, for both the 'Further Flex' and 'Renewables' scenarios, the implied durations are:
Long Duration Energy Storage around 13hrs Duration in 2030 (7.9 GW)
Batteries around 1.78hrs Duration in 2030 (27GW)
https://www.neso.energy/document/346781/download
Thank you!
I avoided diving into that "Clean Power 2030 Data Workbook_V001.xlsx" file for the very reason you hint at: "If I have interpreted the table correctly..."
I admire the complexity of what's done within the workbook.
I also abhor the complexity... I hesitate to guess how on earth they error-check/debug it.
I have the luxury of KISS: keep it simple, stoopid.
All the best.
Nuclear is only mentioned once. The near future is Small Modular Nuclear Reactors. No need for long transmission lines that are needed for Wind and solar. The longer the transmission lines, the more the energy loss. Total life cycle costs including construction and disposal per MWh should be included
Jim, thanks for your comments.
I wish I had your confidence that SMRs will get anywhere soon.
All the while the funds we don't have are dedicated to subsidising windmills and solar panels directed by Energy Minister Ed Milliband of the DNZ, I fear little will be left over for SMRs.
And HMGov seem intent on increasing bureaucracy around the whole issue.
The linked BBC piece on the PM's announcements on AI include another announcement of another quango (the new AI Energy Council)... which will possibly contradict advice from the CCC...?
The most terrifying words imaginable: "We're here from the Government and we want to help you."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c04nl711r0qo
Also with long transmission lines don't forget the risk of extreme weather taking out the transmission lines. During the winter of 1963 Southern England became Islanded so could not import in coal fired capacity from the Midlands and North (coal by wire being the post war electricity strategy) so had to resort to rota disconnection which is why a number of oil fired power station were built in Southern England and I suspect (although this was due to what happen during the winter of 1947 with transporting coal) the reason most of the Magnox power stations were in the Southern half of England.
Then we must not forget the example of the North American Ice Storm of 1998 where freezing rain brought down Hydro Québec's high voltage transmission system which had to be rebuild as it damaged pass the point of repair. In Québec's most of the space heating is provide by electricity most of which is from distant hydro electric dams.
Hi Chris,
Thanks for the prompt reply
I emigrated to South Africa from Oxford (British Leyland) in 1975 (Harold Wilson, 25%inflation etc.) and I am still here.
When is the debate on an early election? I believe the petition is 3,000,000
Regards
Jim Powell WhatsApp +27825712856
From: Chris Bond from Chris B’s Thoughts [mailto:chrisbond@substack.com] On Behalf Of Chris Bond
Sent: Tuesday, 14 January 2025 13:54
To: jimpowell@mweb.co.za
Subject: New comment on Great Britain Reality
Jim, thanks for your comments. I wish I had your confidence that SMRs will get anywhere soon. All the while the funds we don't have are dedicated to subsidising windmills and solar panels directed by Energy Minister Ed Milliband of the DNZ, I fear little will be left over for SMRs. And HMGov seem intent on increasing bureaucracy around the whole issue. The linked BBC piece on the PM's announcements on AI include another announcement of another quango (the new AI Energy Council)... which will possibly contradict advice from the CCC...? The most terrifying words imaginable: "We're here from the Government and we want to help you." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c04nl711r0qo
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Chris Bond replied to your comment on Great Britain Reality.
Jim, thanks for your comments. I wish I had your confidence that SMRs will get anywhere soon. All the while the funds we don't have are dedicated to subsidising windmills and solar panels directed by Energy Minister Ed Milliband of the DNZ, I fear little will be left over for SMRs. And HMGov seem intent on increasing bureaucracy around the whole issue. The linked BBC piece on the PM's announcements on AI include another announcement of another quango (the new AI Energy Council)... which will possibly contradict advice from the CCC...? The most terrifying words imaginable: "We're here from the Government and we want to help you." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c04nl711r0qo
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