Thanks for another insightful post. Why is it that government agencies can’t produce & publish this type of analysis?
I appreciate your concern that curtailing loads leads to deindustrialization, but would it not be pragmatic to consider limited demand management together with fill-in carbon based generation capacity as part of a transition strategy.
Would variable pricing of power not result in “voluntary” curtailment of demand? Of course relying on market forces does not necessarily result in the best outcome for society as a whole, which leads back to strategically identifying demand that can be curtailed…
To be clear, I think that 'solving' the problem of Shortfalls of power via Demand management would lead to further GB de-industrialisation. It is too easy a policy lever for DNZ to reach for when their 'plan' starts to fail. And I don't trust them not to keep pulling on that policy lever every time the Wind drops.
So, I exclude that option from the scenarios I explore to make sure I illustrate just how darned difficult it will be to 'decarbonise' only GB's power sector without destroying what remains of the GB productive sector.
As for variable power pricing: I think better-off people with EVs and Solar on their roofs plus maybe some home battery packs would make the most of it. People without those advantages, whose energy Demand is not flexible (because maybe they don't want to freeze in their homes), would probably suffer higher prices on average.
I'd also be surprised after several years of high electricity prices in the UK if there are many easy savings to be made across business. Plus factories / industries that have to operate 24/7 would also probably suffer higher prices, making them less competitive & more likely to go bust.
> As for variable power pricing: I think better-off people with EVs and Solar on their roofs plus maybe some home battery packs would make the most of it.
EVs and home battery packs yes, Solar, no. The price already goes down when the sun shines. This may change a bit now that heat pumps with an air cooling function (AKA ordinary air conditioners) will be allowed to get grants.
But everyone will benefit from variable pricing if it means we can keep the lights on without having to resort to fossil fuels for a larger percentage of the time, even it those people aren't on the variable price themselves.
Thanks for another insightful post. Why is it that government agencies can’t produce & publish this type of analysis?
I appreciate your concern that curtailing loads leads to deindustrialization, but would it not be pragmatic to consider limited demand management together with fill-in carbon based generation capacity as part of a transition strategy.
Would variable pricing of power not result in “voluntary” curtailment of demand? Of course relying on market forces does not necessarily result in the best outcome for society as a whole, which leads back to strategically identifying demand that can be curtailed…
Hi David, thank you.
To be clear, I think that 'solving' the problem of Shortfalls of power via Demand management would lead to further GB de-industrialisation. It is too easy a policy lever for DNZ to reach for when their 'plan' starts to fail. And I don't trust them not to keep pulling on that policy lever every time the Wind drops.
So, I exclude that option from the scenarios I explore to make sure I illustrate just how darned difficult it will be to 'decarbonise' only GB's power sector without destroying what remains of the GB productive sector.
As for variable power pricing: I think better-off people with EVs and Solar on their roofs plus maybe some home battery packs would make the most of it. People without those advantages, whose energy Demand is not flexible (because maybe they don't want to freeze in their homes), would probably suffer higher prices on average.
I'd also be surprised after several years of high electricity prices in the UK if there are many easy savings to be made across business. Plus factories / industries that have to operate 24/7 would also probably suffer higher prices, making them less competitive & more likely to go bust.
> As for variable power pricing: I think better-off people with EVs and Solar on their roofs plus maybe some home battery packs would make the most of it.
EVs and home battery packs yes, Solar, no. The price already goes down when the sun shines. This may change a bit now that heat pumps with an air cooling function (AKA ordinary air conditioners) will be allowed to get grants.
But everyone will benefit from variable pricing if it means we can keep the lights on without having to resort to fossil fuels for a larger percentage of the time, even it those people aren't on the variable price themselves.