Using data from later years, poses a problem in that it includes a substantial amount of curtailment. When modelling their grid, I default to earlier years to get a more accurate picture.
- I agree with it all, except in my posts where I've touched upon energy storage technologies, I've tried to make clear which are fully commercialised vs. which are far from that. So,
Gravity energy storage has failed where it's been tried (I think coz too complex, & v high maintenance for low energy storage density)
All but pumped storage in the long-term list are yet to be commercialised at scale. (You've missed e.g. Form Energy's rust batteries which are also yet to be commercialised at scale.)
- your data for a ~year's batteries in the NEM indicates a real-world RTE of 78%, and I believe they're mostly Li-ion.
Re: diminishing returns: I originally identified it in the context of generation, and I think that's where it's most relevant.
Chris I understand you are making a point on LDES.
It would be interesting to increase the mix with RNG to help run the balance of NG dispatchers and adding Nuclear? The RNG CCS fuels aviation etc. and reduces organics which would decompose anyway.
Given this reality if the population would also adjust their habits to help reduce the demand response what could that look like?
Cryogenic plants have been around for 100+ years. Today a large Cryo separation plant runs at +98% capacity year-round. No issues with Liquid Air storage IMO other than economics. It requires serious level of industrialization to be reshored. There is also CO2 cryo storage being demoed.
I understand "RNG" to mean 'renewable natural gas' which from your "reduces organics which would decompose anyway" I infer to mean 'biogas' from organic waste. You can see from DUKES 6.2 that in 2022 UK had 1,957 MW installed capacity of 'biogas': 1,059 MW landfill gas, 268 MW sewage gas and 630 MW anaerobic digestion - that last being from organic waste I think. From which, again in 2022, was generated: 7,500 MWh total from 'biogas'; ... 3,391 MWh from anaerobic digestion. Out of a total UK electricity generation in 2022 of 325,257 MWh. So, give or take, 1%. Useful, but I don't see it moving the dial in a big-picture-analysis such as mine.
Re: "the population would also adjust their habits", there lies the rub. Unless and until we start having open and informed discussions between the population and the Govt. about the implications of 'net zero', we cannot have informed consent for any 'adjustment of habits'. So my point is not *just* on LDES, it is to try to open up the discussion regarding the realities of the pending energy 'transition' by illustrating the magnitudes of the numbers involved.
Re: cryo plants, yes of course continuous gas separation plants have been running for donkeys' ages. The difference is that LDES cryo units would be powered by intermittent 'green' electricity... what happens to them when the wind drops? Import grid power to keep them at cryo temperatures? Then the energy they'll store will be tainted by whatever 'colour' the grid power happens to be. It's a similar issue as with 'green' hydrogen - if you have a connection to the 'dirty' grid, who's to say you won't use it to keep your expensive kit running 24/7?
The mono-focus on reducing CO2 in the UK has, I think, resulted in more de-industrialisation than is sensible. Re-shoring lost engineering and industrial capabilities is another immense task.
Great analysis. Just a couple of comments:
Using data from later years, poses a problem in that it includes a substantial amount of curtailment. When modelling their grid, I default to earlier years to get a more accurate picture.
You may be interested in https://wrjohn1.substack.com/p/grid-based-energy-storage-explained where I talk about "How Much Storage Capacity is Needed". I discuss the trade-off between Capex and FCOE.
You mention "Diminishing Returns" for energy storage. But, it also has a major effect on actual generation. I talk about it in: https://wrjohn1.substack.com/p/wind-solar-and-the-effect-of-diminishing
Thank you, Bill.
A couple of comments on your 1st linked post:
- I agree with it all, except in my posts where I've touched upon energy storage technologies, I've tried to make clear which are fully commercialised vs. which are far from that. So,
Gravity energy storage has failed where it's been tried (I think coz too complex, & v high maintenance for low energy storage density)
All but pumped storage in the long-term list are yet to be commercialised at scale. (You've missed e.g. Form Energy's rust batteries which are also yet to be commercialised at scale.)
- your data for a ~year's batteries in the NEM indicates a real-world RTE of 78%, and I believe they're mostly Li-ion.
Re: diminishing returns: I originally identified it in the context of generation, and I think that's where it's most relevant.
Otherwise, thumbs up!
Chris I understand you are making a point on LDES.
It would be interesting to increase the mix with RNG to help run the balance of NG dispatchers and adding Nuclear? The RNG CCS fuels aviation etc. and reduces organics which would decompose anyway.
Given this reality if the population would also adjust their habits to help reduce the demand response what could that look like?
Cryogenic plants have been around for 100+ years. Today a large Cryo separation plant runs at +98% capacity year-round. No issues with Liquid Air storage IMO other than economics. It requires serious level of industrialization to be reshored. There is also CO2 cryo storage being demoed.
Hello Michael, and thank you for your comments.
I understand "RNG" to mean 'renewable natural gas' which from your "reduces organics which would decompose anyway" I infer to mean 'biogas' from organic waste. You can see from DUKES 6.2 that in 2022 UK had 1,957 MW installed capacity of 'biogas': 1,059 MW landfill gas, 268 MW sewage gas and 630 MW anaerobic digestion - that last being from organic waste I think. From which, again in 2022, was generated: 7,500 MWh total from 'biogas'; ... 3,391 MWh from anaerobic digestion. Out of a total UK electricity generation in 2022 of 325,257 MWh. So, give or take, 1%. Useful, but I don't see it moving the dial in a big-picture-analysis such as mine.
Re: "the population would also adjust their habits", there lies the rub. Unless and until we start having open and informed discussions between the population and the Govt. about the implications of 'net zero', we cannot have informed consent for any 'adjustment of habits'. So my point is not *just* on LDES, it is to try to open up the discussion regarding the realities of the pending energy 'transition' by illustrating the magnitudes of the numbers involved.
Re: cryo plants, yes of course continuous gas separation plants have been running for donkeys' ages. The difference is that LDES cryo units would be powered by intermittent 'green' electricity... what happens to them when the wind drops? Import grid power to keep them at cryo temperatures? Then the energy they'll store will be tainted by whatever 'colour' the grid power happens to be. It's a similar issue as with 'green' hydrogen - if you have a connection to the 'dirty' grid, who's to say you won't use it to keep your expensive kit running 24/7?
The mono-focus on reducing CO2 in the UK has, I think, resulted in more de-industrialisation than is sensible. Re-shoring lost engineering and industrial capabilities is another immense task.