Marine generation at 5.43% average capacity factor!
Are many others old enough to remember Tomorrow's World's prediction that 'Salter's Duck' was the future for all Britain's elecricity generation? And smile.
Hello Ron, thank you, and yes I *do* remember breathless commentary by (probably Raymond Baxter) on Tomorrow's World saying all our energy needs would be satisfied by flocks of Salter's Ducks all around our coasts. Shame about resilience to storms, or lack thereof, as well as general cost/complexity/maintenance issues.
Thank you for the links to the various marine schemes... which seem to have swallowed an awful lot of public "investment" for almost zero return. Problems picking technology winners demonstrated yet again.
Thanks Chris. I suppose the question is what is the intended use for the derated capacity. If it’s to check whether demand can be met then they are far too high. Solar has zero output at time of peak demand, and even wind which will be higher than average over peak cannot guarantee more than a few percent.
"I suppose the question is what is the intended use for the derated capacity."
Could it be to try to mask the magnitude of poor performances of the actual installed capacities from the public?
From one of Chris's earlier posts relating to Britain 9rather than the UK), generating near-zero from a 'derated' capacity of perhaps 30GW is perceived by some as not quite so pathetic as generating near-zero from actual capacity of 40GW. ;-)
It seems to me that the load factor de-rating system was set up with someone's initial best guesses at load factors. But they were then cast in stone (otherwise known as made part of UK statute).
I think there's ample evidence now to revise the basis for de-rating the *capacity* of Wind & Solar PV.
It just goes to show what happens when reality meets political ambition. You can be sure that someone somewhere is desperately trying to find a scapegoat for when the lights go out and generation capacity turns out to have been a fairy tale.
Comment received via email Wednesday, 2 August 2023
"Great stuff, Chris. A couple of questions.
I remember you uprated Gridwatch's figures a while back after consideration of DUKES. Has your investigation above changed your mind on this?
Second, I think that wind turbines have a certain life - something like 25 years for on-shore, maybe 20 years off-shore. After this time, the amount of electricity is perhaps 50% of what it was at commissioning. Have you seen any of this in the last 5 years' figures? Something like - the number of turbines has increased by 7% in a year but the increase in overall power has only gone up 5%.
Re: Gridwatch and DUKES load factors: yes, on my to do list.
I still think it's a valid fudge, even though it *is* a fudge.
Re: life of wind turbines:
I've thought about this.
The blades definitely suffer degradation, there are video clips of rope-access guys cutting out parts of the eroded surface and repairing same.
Or of course blades can be replaced if you have tall enough crane and the rest of the installation is worth it.
But I've seen reference to operators choosing to replace wind turbines well before they reach end-of-life simply because the new turbines are greater capacity and/or more efficient.
I don't see a signal for reducing efficiency in the Wind generation numbers per Gridwatch - I think the natural variability drowns out any that might be there.
Thanks for your insightful analysis Chris.
Marine generation at 5.43% average capacity factor!
Are many others old enough to remember Tomorrow's World's prediction that 'Salter's Duck' was the future for all Britain's elecricity generation? And smile.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-42988872
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-40294158
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/business/business-news/deltastream-tidal-energy-device-only-12306961#
Hello Ron, thank you, and yes I *do* remember breathless commentary by (probably Raymond Baxter) on Tomorrow's World saying all our energy needs would be satisfied by flocks of Salter's Ducks all around our coasts. Shame about resilience to storms, or lack thereof, as well as general cost/complexity/maintenance issues.
Thank you for the links to the various marine schemes... which seem to have swallowed an awful lot of public "investment" for almost zero return. Problems picking technology winners demonstrated yet again.
Thanks Chris. I suppose the question is what is the intended use for the derated capacity. If it’s to check whether demand can be met then they are far too high. Solar has zero output at time of peak demand, and even wind which will be higher than average over peak cannot guarantee more than a few percent.
Hi Andy
"I suppose the question is what is the intended use for the derated capacity."
Could it be to try to mask the magnitude of poor performances of the actual installed capacities from the public?
From one of Chris's earlier posts relating to Britain 9rather than the UK), generating near-zero from a 'derated' capacity of perhaps 30GW is perceived by some as not quite so pathetic as generating near-zero from actual capacity of 40GW. ;-)
https://i.postimg.cc/Zq1QZ1z4/Chris-Bond-s-of-Demand-met-by-40-GW-of-Wind-Solar-2022-01-01-to-2022-06-10-Gridwatch.jpg
Thank you Andy. And exactly that.
It seems to me that the load factor de-rating system was set up with someone's initial best guesses at load factors. But they were then cast in stone (otherwise known as made part of UK statute).
I think there's ample evidence now to revise the basis for de-rating the *capacity* of Wind & Solar PV.
It just goes to show what happens when reality meets political ambition. You can be sure that someone somewhere is desperately trying to find a scapegoat for when the lights go out and generation capacity turns out to have been a fairy tale.
Comment received via email Wednesday, 2 August 2023
"Great stuff, Chris. A couple of questions.
I remember you uprated Gridwatch's figures a while back after consideration of DUKES. Has your investigation above changed your mind on this?
Second, I think that wind turbines have a certain life - something like 25 years for on-shore, maybe 20 years off-shore. After this time, the amount of electricity is perhaps 50% of what it was at commissioning. Have you seen any of this in the last 5 years' figures? Something like - the number of turbines has increased by 7% in a year but the increase in overall power has only gone up 5%.
Pat"
Hello Pat,
Thank you.
Re: Gridwatch and DUKES load factors: yes, on my to do list.
I still think it's a valid fudge, even though it *is* a fudge.
Re: life of wind turbines:
I've thought about this.
The blades definitely suffer degradation, there are video clips of rope-access guys cutting out parts of the eroded surface and repairing same.
Or of course blades can be replaced if you have tall enough crane and the rest of the installation is worth it.
But I've seen reference to operators choosing to replace wind turbines well before they reach end-of-life simply because the new turbines are greater capacity and/or more efficient.
I don't see a signal for reducing efficiency in the Wind generation numbers per Gridwatch - I think the natural variability drowns out any that might be there.